Geospatial Memory and Joblessness Interpolated: International Migration Oxymora in the City of Biblián, Southern Ecuador

Resumen

This study observed the economic and educational conditions of Biblian and carried out a geographical analysis regarding the variables of lack of education and joblessness to evaluate if these two factors can be used to predict the trend of international emigration. Poverty affects the small and mid-size cities of this southern mountainscape in Ecuador thereby creating a mosaic of different socio-economic areas inside urban settlements affected by the lack of educational availability and joblessness. This create an imperative to emigrate from depressed areas to more affluent countries--especially the United States. Conversely, wealthy retirees have immigrated into the region motivated by the environmental quality and the conservation prospects of the territory. The tension generated by the lack of economic opportunities in mountain towns versus the increased affluence of locals by remittances from abroad as well as the increased presence of expatriates make Azuay and Canar provinces the focus in understanding the local socio-economic dynamics amidst global tendencies such as migratory flows from developing to developed worlds. We studied the economic and educational situation with data from the 2015 census of the Monitoring Mechanism for Migratory Impact (MIMM) conducted in the city of Biblian, province of Canar, Ecuador, which consists of a spatial-statistical database, also called the Geographic Information System (GIS). Based on this information, we carried out a Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) using two independent variables, the levels of education and unpaid work in relation to a dependent variable, namely, international emigration. Our research question was, Are low levels of education and lack of paid jobs the predictors of external migration? If so, could educational attainment and joblessness be the main variables that can predict tendencies of international emigration? For better visualization and analysis, spatial interpolations were subsequently made. The main results of this study show areas in the city of Biblian where there is exhibited a greater influence of low levels of education and unpaid work on emigration as well as urban areas where this association is less prominent. For example, in the GWR, between levels of education and international emigration, the local one produced coefficients of determination (R2) with variations between 0.07% and 60.07% with local standard errors (SE) which fluctuated between 0.60% and 10.02%; the GWR made between unpaid work and emigration abroad produced local R2 with variations between 4.31% and 5.34% and the local SE which fluctuated between 2.97% and 2.99%; Finally, the GWR of both independent variables against international emigration generated local R2 between 4.02% and 5.34% with local SE between 7.85% and 33.32%.