El descenso en la migración de mexicanos hacia Estados Unidos y los efectos en el mercado de trabajo

Resumen

The international economic crisis and the tightening of the immigration status of Mexicans in the United States have been expressed in a sharp decline in labor migration from Mexico. Supported on the natural rate of unemployment concept, we want to show the potential effects on the labor market of a sudden stop in the flow of Mexican labor migration. In the absence of a short-term monetary incentive to encourage employment, stopping illegal immigration will impact on job insecurity in Mexico, in particular job creation in the informal sector of the economy, critical conditions of occupation and partial occupation and finally the increase in unemployment. Using a panel data model with cross section of states for the period 2005-2010, concludes that the economic recovery in Mexico will be accompanied by high unemployment and more precarious labor market, which potentially can lead to greater social pressures and political conflict. The situation requires profound structural changes to lead to increase occupancy levels.