Ciclicidad de la política fiscal en Ecuador

Resumen

This article finds new empirical evidence on the cyclicality of fiscal policy in Ecuador between 1982-2018, additionally, the analysis is divided into before and after dollarization. The Ordinary Least Squares and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares methods were used and the cyclicality coefficients were estimated for a set of fiscal variables such as: real growth rate of government spending, government consumption, government capital spending, non-revenue oil and primary balance. The results show that fiscal policy is pro-cyclical but proportionally less than GDP fluctuations only in the real growth rate of government consumption, while in the other variables no robust evidence was found.