Impactos de la Migración en el Cambio Demográfico de Cuba y el Municipio Sagua la Grande. Retos al desarrollo, 1990-2010

Resumen

This research analyzes the impact on Cuba´s population trends of the sustained growth of its migration since the 90´s which has become a determinant variable. We consider Sagua la Grande as a lab to explain the possible future trends for the country. We use a conceptual framework within the studies of population and development that relate population transformations linked to economic and social development, taking into account the particularities of this undevelopped State and analizing migration as the linking axis that relates population and development. My hypothesis is that since the ‗special period‘ emigration is the variable that determines the restrictions that population dynamics impose on the Cuban development. Due to the fact that the high migrating rates cause population loss particularly of the young population at a reproductive age and with high educational levels, population aging has increased. In addition, there has been a transformation of the composition of age groups that affects the availability and replacement of the economically active population (EAP). This research is based on the Theory of Demographic Transition (DT) or Demographic Revolution. The marxist framework is a key aspect in the use of this research theory, according to which population is considered as an object and subject of development. This framework offers important conceptual elements of analysis for the demographic dynamic, the development of productive forces and relations of production. Among the contributions of this research we find three fundamental (basic) elements. Firts, cuban migration has become a structural problem for the Cuban demographic dynamic, thus, the determining aspect of birth and death rates for population growth is being transferred to migration. Second, migration in general but particularly women migration heightens the fall of fertility indicators and reduces population afecting the future replacement of the EAP and increasing population aging. Third, Cuba´s impossibility of continuing to reach higher levels of social development if the current demographic dynamic and the low productivity levels continue.