COVID-19 will have devastating impact on Ecuador

Resumen

Subject COVID-19 crisis. Significance Ecuador has been one of the countries worst affected by coronavirus in Latin America, with 3,747 cases and 191 fatalities confirmed to date. Unrecorded deaths and lack of testing mean the actual figures are almost certainly significantly higher. The health system is under enormous strain, especially in the coastal province of Guayas where the crisis has been particularly acute. The government has introduced measures to control contagion, closing borders, limiting domestic travel and ordering people to stay at home. Infections and deaths are nevertheless likely to continue rising well into April. Impacts The crisis will derail government efforts to stick to the fiscal consolidation programme agreed with the IMF. Demands will grow for the government to default on tranches of its foreign debt in order to invest in the health system. The mental health impacts of long-term lockdown, particularly in severely affected areas, could be incalculable.