Efectos de la migración sobre el crescimiento poblacional a largo plazo de las províncias cubanas

Resumen

Over the last decades, Cuba has shown very low fertility levels in addition to significant negative migration flows. Moreover, within the country, there is intensive population mobility, characterized by different migration patterns across Cuba´s provinces. In this article, we look at the effect of both internal and international migration flows on long term population growth in Cuba and in its provinces. For that, we estimate reproduction and population growth measures using conventional demographic methods and the methodology proposed by Preston and Wang (2007), which is based on variable-r methods. Given the current demographic patterns, our analysis reveals important negative consequences for the size of the Cuban population in the future when migration effects are accounted for.