Numerical Probability Modeling of Past, Present and Future Landslide Occurrences in Nothern Quito, Ecuador

Resumen

Due to the high occurrences of landslides in the Metropolitan District of Quito, we have tried to determine by a variety of methods the occurrence probability of the mass movements in order to adopt countermeasures in prevention and mitigation reducing both, human and economic losses. Unfortunately, the increasing population density present in the city, is growing in areas near streams, representing settlements with a high risk of potential suffering of irreparable losses for the corresponding population and their infrastructure. Therefore, we focused in a zone where the recurrence of landslides is evident applying Geographic Information Systems, which has been based on mathematical algorithms and fuzzy logic. This application allowed to model different phenomena, such as the estimation of the probability of occurrence of landslides in Northern Quito. The used algorithm has been verified with a landslide inventory obtained from photo interpretation and field verification. Therefore, we present how the combination of modeling techniques such as the Fuzzy Logic and the application of a multi-criteria evaluation may result beneficiary in obtaining tighter and more real values representing the past, present and future landslide hazard phenomenon and their potential extensions in the studied zones.